All performance figures shown are simulated and do not reflect actual trading results. No real money was invested, and actual results may differ materially

September was a month of contrasts across global markets, with central bank actions, shifting macro signals, and technical patterns shaping asset class performance. The dollar swung between multi-year lows and late-month strength, equities wavered after strong year-to-date gains, commodities diverged sharply between safe havens and energy markets, and cryptocurrencies held firm despite volatility. Against this backdrop, trading outcomes reflected both the opportunities and challenges of navigating fast-moving conditions.

Asset Class Summary

Forex

The dollar was choppy in September: it slumped to a four-year low versus the euro ahead of the Fed meeting mid-month, then rebounded after the Fed’s actual cut and firmer U.S. data. The Dollar Index (DXY) traded roughly in the 97–99 band late in the month, with the greenback regaining ground against most G10 peers into Sept. 25–26. EUR/USD eased off mid-month highs but held broadly firmer versus early summer; USD/JPY hovered near ¥149–150 as the dollar’s late-month bounce met lingering intervention watch. The ECB stayed on hold at 2% on Sept. 11, while the Fed cut 25 bps on Sept. 17 and signalled a gradual easing path.

Indices

Equities were mixed but resilient. The S&P 500 notched new record closes earlier in the month and is still up ~13% YTD, though momentum wavered late in September as valuation worries resurfaced. For the week ended Sept. 27, the S&P 500 slipped ~0.3% and the Nasdaq ~0.7%. Small caps, which surged in August, were more uneven. In Europe, the STOXX 600 oscillated on rates and tariff headlines, finishing the month near mid-range; tech and healthcare led while banks lagged on yield moves.

Commodities

Oil stayed under pressure as supply headlines offset geopolitics: by Sept. 29 Brent traded around $70/bbl and WTI near $65/bbl, with the restart of Kurdistan exports and expectations of another OPEC+ output hike in November weighing on prices. Conversely, gold ripped to fresh records above $3,800/oz late in the month as the weaker dollar earlier in September and Fed easing hopes boosted haven demand. Industrial metals were mixed alongside global growth signals.

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto remained volatile but bid. Bitcoin hovered around $110k–$113k late in the month, still up solidly YTD after making fresh records in August; Ether traded near $4.1k. Macro tailwinds from the Fed’s September cut and ongoing institutional participation helped, though swings stayed sharp into month-end.

The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. 

12 month simulated performance statistics

Asset Class Performance

For the month, asset class performance was led by FX Crosses, which delivered a strong return of 6.03% across 98 trades. With a win rate of 51.02% and a drawdown of -10.76%, this segment demonstrated solid profitability despite a relatively deeper risk profile, standing out as the best performer of the month.

FX Majors followed with a modest positive return of 0.69% over 58 trades. The win rate of 53.45% and a contained drawdown of -4.17% reflected consistent execution and effective risk control, making it a steady contributor to overall performance.

Cryptocurrencies also managed to end slightly positive, recording a return of 0.33% on 42 trades. A win rate of 47.62% and a drawdown of -7.50% suggested moderate volatility but a degree of resilience compared to prior months of underperformance.

In contrast, Indices struggled, posting a return of -4.99% across 92 trades. With a win rate of 47.83% and a drawdown of -8.84%, this segment reflected notable headwinds and difficulty maintaining consistent momentum.

The weakest performance came from Commodities, which recorded a return of -1.37% over 76 trades. Despite attempts to capture opportunities, the segment faced the steepest drawdown at -14.71%, underscoring persistent challenges and heightened downside risk.

In summary, the month was defined by the strength of FX Crosses and the steady support of FX Majors and Cryptocurrencies, while Indices and Commodities weighed on overall results. Divergence across asset classes remained clear, with risk management and drawdown control continuing to play a decisive role in outcomes.

The chart below (Black line) shows the Dollar Index (DXY), which continued its downward momentum at the start of September. A bottoming formation developed mid-month, and once completed, it provided a strong technical backdrop that supported further gains. Our analysts were able to capitalise on this setup, generating positive performance across both FX Majors and FX Crosses.

In Global Equities (represented below by the All Country World ETF, Blue line), the well-established uptrend extended into September. While several indices appeared increasingly stretched, we maintained our trend-following approach with some selective attempts to anticipate a reversal. Towards the end of the month, however, a break of a short-term trendline triggered a minor correction. Unfortunately, this move was not fully captured by our analysts, leading to negative returns in Indices.

Overall, September reinforced the importance of balancing conviction in prevailing trends with vigilance for emerging reversals. While FX delivered well-defined opportunities, Equities highlighted the risks of leaning too heavily on extended momentum. Maintaining discipline and adaptability across asset classes remains key as we head into the final quarter of the year.

Best/Worst Performing Markets

For the current month, performance was led by EURGBP, which delivered the strongest return of 6.07% across 16 trades (14 long, 2 short). With a solid win rate of 62.50% and a shallow drawdown of -0.65%, the pair demonstrated both strong profitability and tight risk management, standing out as the best performer of the period.

Close behind, EURCHF achieved a return of 6.06% over 9 trades (4 long, 5 short). Although the win rate was lower at 44.44%, effective risk management capped drawdown at -1.44%, allowing the pair to post strong net gains despite less consistent trade outcomes.

The DOW index also posted notable results, returning 5.98% over 10 trades (8 long, 2 short). With an impressive win rate of 80.00% and a manageable drawdown of -1.79%, the index highlighted both consistent execution and robust profitability.

For the month, the weakest performance came from Natural Gas, which recorded a sharp loss of -10.21% across 14 trades (10 long, 4 short). With a win rate of just 7.14% and a matching drawdown of -10.21%, this segment reflected severe volatility and ineffective trade execution, making it the poorest performer of the period.

Nasdaq also struggled, posting a return of -6.08% over 8 trades (6 long, 2 short). The extremely low win rate of 12.50% and a full drawdown of -6.08% underscored persistent challenges in equity positioning and limited profitability.

Brent crude added further downside, delivering a return of -5.01% on 13 trades (6 long, 7 short). With a win rate of 23.08% and a drawdown of -6.34%, results reflected ongoing headwinds and difficulty capturing directional moves in the commodity space.

The chart below highlights EURCHF (Black), which emerged as our top-performing market for September. Throughout the month, price action was predominantly rangebound, allowing for effective tactical positioning on both the long and short sides. Despite a persistent slight bearish bias—evidenced by a total of four short trades and three long trades—the most significant gains were achieved from short positions, with our two highest-performing trades of the period resulting from this approach.

In contrast, Natural Gas (blue) proved particularly challenging for our analysts. As September began, price action appeared to form a base, suggesting the potential for a trend reversal. Our team attempted to position in line with this emerging setup but encountered significant price whipsaws and limited upward momentum. Instead, Natural Gas settled into an erratic and directionless range throughout the month, showing minimal respect for established technical levels. This lack of technical structure rendered conditions highly unpredictable and difficult to navigate.

Major Macroeconomic Data

Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.

Non Farm Payrolls - 5th September 2025

In September, the US Dollar remained under pressure, with some technical signals hinting at a potential reversal. However, the September 5th Non-Farm Payroll report came in far below expectations at just 22k versus 75k forecast, prompting speculation of a US interest rate cut and driving the Dollar lower while boosting risk appetite. This unexpected move caught many, including our analysts, off guard. Even so, diversification helped limit the impact, with gains in USDCAD, the Dow, Silver, EURJPY, Brent, and the DAX offsetting losses elsewhere, underscoring the value of resilience and adaptability in navigating volatile market conditions.

US CPI (YoY) - 11th September 2025

The US CPI release in September came in slightly above expectations at 0.4% versus the forecast of 0.3%. Ahead of the data, the US Dollar had already been under significant pressure, and while our analysts identified a potential reversal setup earlier in the month, this ultimately invalidated. As a result, positioning into the release left us exposed to the continuation of USD weakness following the data.

On the day, this misalignment weighed on performance, contributing to a decline of -7.78% from 14 trades. While we did see small gains in Litecoin and EURGBP, the stronger-than-expected CPI print did not deliver the anticipated USD support, instead reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum and compounding our losses.

Trade of the Month - EURCHF - 24th September 2025

EURCHF was our strongest market in September, delivering the two largest trades of the month. Our analysts focused daily on EURCHF because of its steady, rangebound movement. We identified a clear opportunity to sell at the top of the range, expecting a short-term pullback. Using strict chart analysis, we set well-defined entries that maximised risk–reward. This disciplined, data-driven process shows how we isolate strong trading setups and act on key market moves.

• Direction: Sell
• Entry Level: 0.9350
• Stop: 0.9355
• Target 1: 0.9330
• Target 2: 0.9320
• Risk/Reward: 1 : 4
  
  

The setup

• The medium term bias remains bearish

• Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high

• Price action looks to be forming a top

• Preferred trade is to sell into rallies

• Bespoke resistance is located at 0.9350 

Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind EURCHF.

The Outcome

The trade was executed precisely at the predetermined entry level early in the session, triggering at 08:21 following a brief price rally. A swift reversal from the defined resistance zone subsequently unfolded, with downside momentum persisting through the remainder of the session. Drawdown was limited to just 1.6 pips from entry. The initial profit target at 0.9330 was reached at 13:38 on 24 September, followed by the achievement of the second target at 0.9320 later that evening at 22:16.

Published: 06:43 UK (24th September 2025)

Triggered at: 08:21 UK (24th September 2025)

Exit at: 13:38 UK - Expiry Time (24th September 2025)

Duration: 6 Hours and 55 minutes

Outcome: 4R

Overall, September underscored the value of discipline and adaptability. FX Crosses led returns, supported by well-defined opportunities in pairs like EURGBP and EURCHF, while FX Majors and Cryptocurrencies added modest gains. Indices and Commodities, however, weighed on results, with volatility in NASDAQ, Brent, and Natural Gas proving difficult to manage. Macro events such as U.S. payrolls and CPI tested positioning, reminding traders of the risks of leaning too heavily on consensus expectations. Highlighted by EURCHF’s precise “Trade of the Month,” the period reinforced the importance of combining technical structure with robust risk management as markets head into the final quarter.

Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.

Acuity Research is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), firm reference number 787261