All performance figures shown are simulated and do not reflect actual trading results. No real money was invested, and actual results may differ materially

June 2025 proved to be a dynamic month across global financial markets, with significant moves shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting monetary policy expectations, and ongoing volatility in key commodities and digital assets. Risk sentiment oscillated throughout the month, creating both challenges and opportunities across asset classes. Against this backdrop, our trading strategies sought to capitalise on clear directional moves while maintaining rigorous risk management. Below, we break down the major developments and performance highlights across forex, equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, alongside detailed analysis of our best and worst performing markets and key trade setups.

Asset Class Summary

Forex

The US dollar broadly weakened throughout June. Persistent speculation that President Trump might replace Fed Chair Powell, coupled with uncertainty over fiscal policy, pushed the dollar to a near three-year low by month-end, down roughly 2–3% against major peers. EUR/USD rallied above 1.1250, supported by strong eurozone PMI data and investor demand for alternatives amid US policy unpredictability. The yen and Swiss franc also strengthened mid-month on safe-haven flows during renewed geopolitical tensions, while commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD and CAD remained range-bound, reacting to mixed Chinese growth figures and commodity price swings.

Indices

Global equity markets posted strong gains in June. US indices, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, closed at record highs, driven by robust tech earnings and renewed hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. European markets also advanced, with the STOXX 600 outperforming on attractive valuations and improved political stability. Emerging markets gained despite volatility in the middle of the month, when tensions flared briefly in the Middle East before easing.

Commodities

Oil prices climbed sharply in early June, rising around 13% mid-month following Israeli strikes on Iran and concerns over potential disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude peaked near $77–78 per barrel before easing slightly, ending June up roughly 6% overall. Gold rose alongside oil during the height of geopolitical tensions, trading between $3,263 and $3,342 per ounce, and finished the month modestly higher as a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand provided support. Industrial metals were mixed; copper rallied on supply concerns, while other base metals lagged due to subdued global manufacturing data.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies recorded solid gains in June. Bitcoin started the month near $105,000, dipped to around $103,000 amid mid-month geopolitical jitters, then rebounded strongly above $108,000 as broader risk appetite returned. Overall, Bitcoin rose around 2–3% during June. Ethereum and other major tokens followed a similar path, with strong institutional inflows and ongoing optimism around crypto ETFs underpinning the rally. However, volatility remained high, with sharp intraday moves challenging for trend and breakout traders.

The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. 

12 month simulated performance statistics

Asset Class Performance

FX Crosses emerged as the top-performing asset class for June, delivering an impressive 18.24% return with a solid 58.51% win rate across 94 trades. Despite a higher drawdown of -7.40%, the performance indicates strong profitability with manageable risk.

Indices followed closely, returning 13.19% with a win rate of 55.56% over 81 trades. They maintained a relatively low drawdown of -2.88%, demonstrating consistent performance and effective risk management.

FX Majors posted a return of 15.18% with a 51.43% win rate from 70 trades. A drawdown of -4.22% suggests solid performance, with balanced outcomes and effective risk control.

Cryptocurrencies delivered a positive return of 4.75% with a win rate of 48.37% over 30 trades, experiencing a drawdown of -3.09%. While they showed mild underperformance compared to other asset classes, the results still reflect some profitability.

Commodities posted minor gains, with a 0.16% return despite a 35.42% win rate across 48 trades. A drawdown of -9.00% suggests significant struggles with risk control and consistency.

In summary, FX Crosses led the month with the highest returns, while Commodities were the sole underperformer. Indices and FX Majors posted respectable gains, and Cryptocurrencies had a modest gain, reflecting a generally strong but varied performance across asset classes.

The chart below illustrates the divergent performance profiles of the Vanguard Total World Stock Index (black), serving as a proxy for global equities, and the WisdomTree Broad Commodities Index (blue), which encompasses a basket of commodities. During June, the Vanguard Total World Index exhibited a sustained upward momentum, providing stable and analytically consistent conditions for our research team. Conversely, the WisdomTree Broad Commodities Index encountered significant volatility, with trading dynamics shaped by heightened geopolitical risk—most notably the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This environment drove pronounced fluctuations in oil prices, complicating efforts to project commodity market trajectories through June. Amid these headwinds, our trading activities capitalised on favourable opportunities across FX Majors, FX Crosses, Indices, and Cryptocurrencies. However, commodity markets presented persistent challenges, demanding heightened selectivity and rigorous risk controls.

Best/Worst Performing Markets

Palladium delivered a return of 8.92% from 11 trades (8 long, 4 short), achieving a win rate of 66.67% with a drawdown of -2.18%.

EURGBP produced a win rate of 66.67% over 9 trades (8 long, 1 short), generating a return of 6.11% with drawdown of -0.53%.

EURSEK posted a return of 5.51% across 9 trades (6 long, 3 short), with an impressive win rate of 77.78% and a minimal drawdown of -0.42%.

USDMXN recorded the poorest performance, with a return of -4.49% across 13 trades (8 long, 5 short), a low win rate of 30.77%, and a drawdown of -4.50%, reflecting weak trade execution and poor risk management.

Ethereum also underperformed, posting a return of -3.98% with a 16.67% win rate from 6 trades (3 long, 3 short), accompanied by a drawdown of -4.00%, highlighting ineffective trade decisions.

Silver mirrored Ethereum’s results with a return of -3.92%, a win rate of 16.67% from 6 trades (3 long, 3 short), and a drawdown of -4.00%, indicating similar struggles with risk control and trade selection.

Palladium stood out as our best-performing market in June, delivering consistent gains throughout the month. The metal benefited from a combination of strong industrial demand and supply concerns, which supported a steady upward trend. Our analyst maintained a bullish bias on palladium, favouring long positions, which resulted in excellent returns for the period.

In contrast, USD/MXN was our weakest performer. The US dollar continued to lose value against the Mexican peso throughout June, reflecting broad dollar weakness and supportive macro conditions for emerging market currencies. Our strategy focused on identifying short-term countertrend opportunities, anticipating a rebound in USD in line with the longer-term bullish trend of the pair. However, the persistent downward momentum in June made these setups challenging, ultimately weighing on performance.

Major Macroeconomic Data

Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.

Non Farm Payrolls - 6th June 2025

The June Non-Farm Payroll report exceeded expectations, recording 139k jobs versus the forecasted 130k, which prompted an initial surge in US Dollar strength. Our trade setups were positioned for continued dollar softness, resulting in a modest loss for the day. While we realised small gains in CAC, EURCHF, and USDCHF, these were offset by mild losses across other positions.

US CPI (YoY) - 11th June 2025

The US CPI print came in marginally below expectations, signalling a further easing in inflationary pressures. This development prompted renewed downside in the US Dollar, extending the prevailing downward trend. As the session progressed, dollar weakness persisted, supporting gains in Litecoin, US2000, NZDUSD, Natural Gas, USDCHF, and the DOW.

Trade of the Month - AUDUSD - 17th June 2025

Our analysts conduct daily, in-depth reviews of market conditions to identify high-probability trading opportunities. Leveraging diverse perspectives and deep sector expertise, our team generates actionable and precise market forecasts. In June, the highlighted trade focused on AUDUSD. Observing a loss of upward momentum, our analyst identified a compelling opportunity to sell into rallies ahead of an anticipated correction. Through the application of robust technical analysis, clear resistance was defined to establish a short position, yielding an attractive risk-reward ratio. This disciplined approach exemplifies our ability to isolate optimal risk-adjusted setups and capitalise on pivotal market inflection points.

• Direction: Sell
• Entry Level: 0.6540
• Stop: 0.6555
• Target 1: 0.6480
• Target 2: 0.6470
• Risk/Reward: 1 : 4

The setup

• Trading has been mixed and volatile

• Price action looks to be forming a top

• We look for a temporary move higher

• Preferred trade is to sell into rallies

• Bespoke resistance is located at 0.6540

Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind AUDUSD.

The Outcome

The trade was initiated at our pre-identified entry level early in the session, triggering at 07:35. Price action remained capped at the 0.6540 resistance for several hours. The release of weaker-than-expected US retail sales data at 13:30—recording -0.9% versus an anticipated -0.7%—accelerated AUDUSD weakness, setting off sustained selling pressure. Drawdown was minimal, limited to just 4 pips from entry. Our first profit target at 0.6480 was achieved at 18:46, with the second target at 0.6470 reached 38 minutes later, at 19:24.

Published: 06:45 UK (17th June 2025)

Triggered at: 07:35 UK (17th June 2025)

Exit at: 18:46 UK (17th June 2025)

Duration: 11 Hours and 11 minutes

Outcome: 4R

In summary, June was characterised by strong equity rallies, broad US dollar weakness, and robust performances in metals such as palladium. Our analysts successfully captured the positive trend in palladium, delivering excellent returns, while FX Crosses emerged as the top-performing asset class overall. However, markets such as USD/MXN presented headwinds, with the dollar’s persistent slide proving challenging for our short-term countertrend strategies. Despite pockets of underperformance, our diversified approach and disciplined trade execution enabled us to finish the month with strong gains across most segments. As we look ahead, maintaining a focus on selective, well-defined opportunities will remain central to navigating an increasingly complex global landscape.

Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.

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