In this blog post, we will explore the trading signals generated by Acuity Trading in the month of September 2024. After several months of losses, September marked a significant rebound for our analysts, wiping out previous declines and putting us on track for a strong year.
Forex markets were the standout performer, delivering robust returns as major currencies like the U.S. dollar and euro showed resilience despite volatile interest rate expectations. Global indices also saw positive gains, recovering from an early-month downturn and benefiting from stronger corporate earnings and central bank actions. Commodities experienced a more mixed outcome, with oil prices fluctuating due to supply concerns, while gold reached new highs, supported by rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions.
Overall, September was a positive month for Acuity Trading, with strong performance in forex and indices more than compensating for commodity losses.
Asset Class Summary
Forex
Currency markets experienced heightened volatility in September, largely driven by fluctuating central bank policies and economic data. A weaker US dollar led to a rally in other major currencies as traders speculated on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, China's move to lower short-term interest rates bolstered the yuan, while the euro and British pound benefited from favourable currency movements against the dollar, aiding European equity outperformance.
Indices
Global equity markets rebounded after a tough start to the month, with major stock indices in the US, UK, and Europe erasing August's losses and closing near all-time highs. Key drivers included strong corporate earnings and a market view that negative developments, such as weaker job data and the unwinding of carry trades, were overdone. European equities outperformed their US counterparts due to currency tailwinds, while US tech stocks, particularly AI-linked firms, saw some pullback as growth stocks underperformed value stocks.
Commodities
Oil prices saw a dramatic pullback after an initial surge, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions. A weaker dollar and potential US rate cuts also fuelled a 9% rally in Brent crude prices before concerns over slowing global demand tempered gains. In contrast, gold surged to a new record high, driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts, central bank buying, and geopolitical risks.
Cryptocurrencies
The cryptocurrency market enjoyed renewed bullish momentum in September. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw significant gains as broader financial market volatility increased interest in decentralized assets. Regulatory uncertainty persisted, but the weaker dollar and growing institutional interest in digital assets helped support the broader crypto rally, positioning cryptocurrencies as a potential hedge against fiat currency fluctuations.
September was a strong month for our trading signals, delivering a positive return of 20.16% with a maximum drawdown of 11.44%. This marks our first positive month in the last three, and thanks to the successful performance in September, we have fully recovered the losses incurred over the previous three months.
12 month simulated performance statistics
| Oct 23 | Nov 23 | Dec 23 | Jan 24 | Feb 24 | Mar 24 | Apr 24 | May 24 | Jun 24 | Jul 24 | Aug 24 | Sept 24 |
| 2.03% | 6.84% | 11.92% | 29.20% | 40.86% | 5.88% | 10.92% | 15.15% | -2.77% | -7.69% | -8.92% | 20.16% |
FX Crosses delivered the best performance with a 55.79% win rate and a 14.58% return, while FX Majors also showed positive results with a 51.79% win rate and a 7.07% return. Cryptocurrencies achieved a modest gain of 1.47% with a 51.61% win rate. On the other hand, Commodities faced difficulties, posting a negative return of -9.08% and the highest drawdown of -12.07%. Indices encountered challenges as well, recording a 4.23% return but with a relatively low win rate of 44.74% and a significant drawdown of -11.76%.
| Asset Class | Trades | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| FX Majors | 56 | 51.79% | 7.07% | -2.29% |
| FX Crosses | 95 | 55.79% | 14.58% | -2.90% |
| Commodities | 58 | 39.66% | -9.08% | -12.07% |
| Indices | 76 | 44.74% | 4.23% | -11.76% |
| Cryptocurrencies | 31 | 51.61% | 1.47% | -4.65% |
The US Dollar Index continued its downward trend throughout September, remaining within a bearish channel. This provided a stable environment for us to capitalize on various FX pairs, making FX our top-performing asset class for the month. FX delivered total gains of 21.65%, with 7.07% from FX Majors and 14.58% from FX Crosses. Commodities, however, underperformed. The month began with relative stability, but mid-September saw a breakout through resistance in the commodity index, leading to unexpected price surges. This shift caught our analysts off guard, resulting in negative returns for the asset class.
USDMXN stood out as the top performer in September 2024, initiating 15 trades with an impressive 73.33% win rate and returns of 8.57%. Our analysts skilfully navigated the challenging market conditions, taking advantage of the fluctuations within the currency pair. USDJPY also showed strong performance, executing 7 trades with a 71.43% win rate and a return of 6.12%, as our team effectively managed both long and short positions during the reversal of the previous downtrend. Additionally, NZDUSD executed 9 trades with a 66.67% win rate, yielding a solid return of 4.28%.
| Best | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| USDJPY | 7 | 4 | 3 | 71.43% | 6.12% | -0.57% |
| USDMXN | 15 | 8 | 7 | 73.33% | 8.57% | -1.01% |
| NZDUSD | 9 | 4 | 5 | 66.67% | 4.28% | -0.23% |
In September, certain markets presented significant challenges. Palladium encountered the most difficulty, executing 10 trades but achieving only a 20% win rate, resulting in a return of -5.97%. Natural Gas also faced struggles, with 9 trades and a 22.22% win rate, ending the month with a return of -3.32%. XRP experienced similarly tough conditions, with 5 trades and a minimal win rate of 20%, generating a return of -1.36%. Despite these setbacks, we remain optimistic about future performance given the historical strength of these markets.
| Worst | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| Palladium | 10 | 3 | 7 | 20.00% | -5.97% | -5.97% |
| Natural Gas | 9 | 1 | 8 | 22.22% | -3.32% | -5.17% |
| XRP | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20.00% | -1.36% | -2.06% |
USDJPY saw fluctuations throughout August. Initially, the pair's value declined in the first half of the month, but this trend reversed mid-month as USDJPY climbed higher. These relatively stable price conditions enabled us to seize opportunities in both directions, resulting in profitable trades. Conversely, Palladium experienced extreme volatility, with total price movement exceeding 25% during the month. The sharp price surge from the 9th to the 18th provided minimal pullbacks, restricting our market entry. As the price began to decline mid-month, volatility lessened, but the earlier erratic conditions made it difficult for our analysts to pinpoint solid trading opportunities.
Major Macroeconomic Data
Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 06/09/2024 | 24 | 37.5% | 4.60% |
September's Non-Farm Payrolls report came in below expectations, with an actual reading of 142K against the forecast of 161K. This weaker-than-expected result fuelled further calls for interest rate cuts in the US. In response, the US Dollar experienced a brief countertrend move higher. On the day of the release, we executed a significant number of trades, achieving a positive overall outcome of 4.60%. Key trades that hit their targets included USDMXN, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAGUSD and EURNZD.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US CPI (MoM) | 11/09/2024 | 23 | 34.78% | -2.51% |
The US CPI data came in line with expectations, but triggered a sharp upward move in the US Dollar, counter to its underlying downward trend. The Dollar rallied into the session close before reversing course the next day, resuming its broader decline. While we recorded several winning trades during this session, none reached our intraday targets, ultimately resulting in a 2.51% loss for the day.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US Interest Rate Decision | 18/09/2024 | 19 | 36.84% | -1.99% |
The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting surprised the markets, leading to sharp price swings in the immediate aftermath. During this session, we recorded seven winning trades, with only USDJPY successfully reaching its intraday price target before the close.
Our team of skilled analysts meticulously analyse the market to identify high-quality trading opportunities every day. Each analyst brings a unique perspective, leveraging their extensive expertise to craft accurate market predictions.
In September, a standout trade was a strategic sell on the FTSE100, executed on 3rd September 2024. The trade was based on the formation of an ending wedge pattern, where the analyst identified an ideal entry point to sell the UK benchmark index into a brief rally. Using classic technical analysis, the analyst pinpointed pullbacks within the trend, setting up a trade with a balanced risk profile and promising reward potential. This precise market assessment resulted in a highly successful trade, showcasing the value of thorough market research and timely decision-making.
Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind the FTSE.
The FTSE hit our targeted entry level at 08:01 (UK) with a minimal drawdown of 0.8 pips. The price immediately moved lower from the entry point, continuing its corrective decline throughout the trading session.
Selling persisted through the standard trading hours, which ended at 4:30 pm, and extended into the after-hours session. This selling pressure, driven by weaker conditions in the US indices, pushed the index to our first target of 8253 at 20:41 (UK). Prices continued to decline into the next trading day, eventually bottoming out at 8158, well below our second target of 8237.
The price bottomed out on Monday 9th September at 8158, which was well past our 2nd target at 8237, without hitting the stop loss.
Triggered at: 08:01 UK (3rd September 2024)
Exit at: 20:41 UK (3rd September 2024)
Duration: 12 Hours and 40 minutes
Outcome: 3.88R
To close out the analysis of Acuity Trading’s signal performance in September 2024, it’s clear that the month brought a strong recovery after a challenging period. Forex markets led the way, delivering impressive returns, while indices followed suit with a solid rebound from earlier losses. Despite some setbacks in commodities, with oil and gold showing mixed performance, the overall result was a positive return of 24.33%. FX crosses stood out as the top-performing asset class, while cryptocurrencies showed modest gains amidst market volatility.
Although commodities and indices faced higher drawdowns, the performance in other asset classes more than compensated for these challenges. Notable wins in markets like NZDUSD and USDJPY underscored the effectiveness of our strategy in capitalizing on currency movements, despite difficult conditions in markets like palladium and natural gas.
September's turnaround sets us on a strong trajectory, fully recovering the losses from the previous months and positioning us well for the rest of the year. However, as always, it's important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and careful risk management remains crucial in navigating volatile markets.
Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.