March 2025 proved to be a tumultuous period for global markets, marked by significant geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. The introduction of tariffs by President Donald Trump heightened trade uncertainties, leading to substantial volatility in equity markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced their worst quarterly declines since 2022, with the S&P 500 falling by 4.6% and the Nasdaq by 10% for the quarter. This downturn was exacerbated by concerns over potential global trade conflicts and inflationary pressures.
In contrast to February's performance, our trading signals faced challenges in March, resulting in a negative return of -7.53%. This decline reflects the broader market sentiment, as investors grappled with the implications of Trump's tariffs and ongoing geopolitical strains, including ceasefire negotiations and their potential impact on global trade dynamics.
Major asset classes responded variably to these developments. Currency markets continued to exhibit divergent performance, while commodities saw mixed results, with gold surging to record highs amid safe-haven demand. Cryptocurrencies also faced significant pressure, weakening due to ongoing trade uncertainties and risk-off sentiment.
As we analyse March's key market trends, we highlight the best and worst-performing assets and provide insights into how macroeconomic shifts influenced trading outcomes. Our data-driven analysis aims to equip traders with actionable insights to navigate the complex market landscape ahead.
Asset Class Summary
Forex EUR/USD held near 1.0660 support despite Trump's 25% tariff threats against the EU, as markets saw deadlines as flexible, while weak Eurozone data and USD strength kept it below 1.0950 resistance, with bearish RSI divergence signalling downside risks. GBP/USD struggled above 1.2600 amid USD safe-haven demand, failing to break 1.2700 resistance despite strong UK inflation data, and briefly dipped below 1.2300 in March on Trump's Canada/Mexico tariffs before a partial recovery. USD/JPY rebounded from 146.60 support, breaking a bearish trendline as US fiscal consolidation eased pressure, but bullish momentum stalled near 152.80 resistance, with 148.20 acting as a floor.
Indices The S&P 500 dropped 4.6% quarterly, its worst performance since 2022, driven by tariff fears and inflation concerns, with sharp losses on March 28. The Nasdaq fell 10% for the quarter, breaking below 19,190 support amid tech sell-offs and rising Treasury yields. In contrast, the Euro Stoxx outperformed, nearing yearly highs on ceasefire optimism and reduced energy price risks. Tariff announcements and retaliatory threats, along with multi-decade lows in consumer sentiment, fuelled market volatility and equity outflows.
Commodities Brent crude surged above $71/bbl amid Middle East tensions, though gains were capped by US-Russia tariff threats, including potential 25% tariffs on Russian oil and up to 50% secondary tariffs on Chinese and Indian imports, raising global supply concerns. Gold hit record highs above $3,000/oz on strong safe-haven demand, holding bullish momentum above $2,980 support. Industrial metals like copper and aluminium struggled under pressure from weak Chinese data and escalating US tariffs.
Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum extended declines due to risk-off sentiment and regulatory scrutiny amid tariff uncertainties, with their correlation to tech stocks strengthening as they mirrored the Nasdaq’s breakdown below key trendlines.
March’s markets were defined by diminishing reactions to Trump’s tariff brinkmanship, shifting focus to ceasefire negotiations and fiscal risks. While equities bore the brunt of volatility, commodities like gold capitalised on demand, and FX pairs reflected divergent regional growth narratives. The Nasdaq’s technical breakdown and USD resilience underscore persistent macro headwinds heading into Q2 2025.
The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results.
12 month simulated performance statistics
| Apr 24 | May 24 | Jun 24 | Jul 24 | Aug 24 | Sep 24 | Oct 24 | Nov 24 | Dec 24 | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 |
| 10.92% | 15.15% | -2.77% | -7.69% | -8.92% | 20.16% | -18.47% | -15.68% | 27.29% | 12.66% | 16.50% | -7.53% |
FX Crosses delivered the strongest performance in March, achieving a return of 17.95%, the highest win rate at 53.54%, and a relatively low drawdown of -3.69%.
FX Majors also performed well, posting a 2.82% return with a 50.72% win rate and maintaining a controlled drawdown of -2.34%, the lowest among all asset classes.
In contrast, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies struggled, with returns of -4.72% and -5.55%, respectively, alongside win rates below 40%. Indices were the weakest performer, delivering a -14.15% return with a 46.00% win rate and the highest drawdown at -15.38%, reflecting challenging market conditions.
Overall, FX Crosses led the month, while Indices faced the sharpest losses, highlighting a mixed performance across asset classes.
| Asset Class | Trades | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| FX Majors | 69 | 50.72% | 2.82% | -2.34% |
| FX Crosses | 99 | 53.54% | 17.95% | -3.69% |
| Commodities | 60 | 38.33% | -4.72% | -6.50% |
| Indices | 100 | 46.00% | -14.15% | -15.38% |
| Cryptocurrencies | 19 | 36.84% | -5.55% | -5.68% |
The chart below highlights the contrasting performance of the Dollar Index (black) and the NASDAQ (red). At the start of the month, the US dollar experienced a sharp selloff but later stabilised. In contrast, the NASDAQ saw extreme volatility, with multiple 6-8% swings over short periods. This turbulence was mirrored across other US indices, creating challenging conditions for our analysts.
While we benefited from favourable currency market conditions, navigating the volatility in equities proved more difficult. As a result, our positive returns for the month were primarily driven by currencies, whereas our performance in indices fell short due to the unpredictable price action.
USDCAD delivered the highest return at 5.37%, with a win rate of 57.14% across 14 trades, predominantly long positions (12 long vs. 2 short), while maintaining a minimal drawdown of -1.04%.
GBPCHF followed closely, achieving a return of 4.77% with a strong win rate of 63.64% over 11 trades, split between 7 long and 4 short positions, though it experienced a slightly higher drawdown of -2.00%.
AUDJPY rounded out the group with a 3.51% return, a 60.00% win rate over 10 trades (8 long, 2 short), and the lowest drawdown at -0.57%.
Overall, USDCAD led in returns, while GBPCHF, and AUDJPY displayed strong win rates and balanced risk management.
| Best | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| USDCAD | 14 | 12 | 2 | 57.14% | 5.37% | -1.04% |
| GBPCHF | 11 | 7 | 4 | 63.64% | 4.77% | -2.00% |
| AUDJPY | 10 | 8 | 2 | 60.00% | 3.51% | -0.57% |
CAC was the weakest performer, delivering a negative return of -5.85% with a win rate of just 16.67% across 12 trades (8 long vs. 4 short), alongside the highest drawdown of -6.53%, indicating significant volatility and poor trade success.
COPPER also struggled, posting a return of -4.16% with a win rate of 0.00% over 6 trades (1 long vs. 5 short), reflecting a complete lack of successful trades and a matching drawdown of -4.16%.
NASDAQ recorded a return of -3.65%, a win rate of 45.45%, and a drawdown of -3.67% over 11 trades (9 long vs. 2 short), suggesting difficulty in maintaining positive momentum despite a relatively better win rate compared to other assets.
Overall, these assets faced challenging market conditions, with CAC experiencing the steepest losses, COPPER failing to secure any wins, and NASDAQ showing a moderate struggle with losses and risk exposure.
| Worst | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| CAC | 12 | 8 | 4 | 16.67% | -5.85% | -6.53% |
| COPPER | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.00% | -4.16% | -4.16% |
| NASDAQ | 11 | 9 | 2 | 45.45% | -3.65% | -3.67% |
USDCAD delivered the strongest performance in February, trending lower overall but presenting countertrend opportunities that our analyst capitalised on, securing a 5.37% return with strong risk/reward management.
In contrast, NASDAQ experienced significant volatility, with signs of a potential breakdown in its long-term uptrend. These challenging conditions contributed to a -3.65% return, making it one of the more difficult assets to trade during the month.
Major Macroeconomic Data
Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 07/03/2025 | 17 | 64.71% | 5.87% |
The March Non-Farm Payroll report came in weaker than expected at 151k versus the forecasted 170k, temporarily halting the US Dollar’s sell-off and stabilising its price in the hours that followed. Despite the market volatility, we secured notable wins across several assets, including USDTRY, AUDJPY, SP500, Oil, USDJPY, and Platinum, demonstrating strong performance in a challenging environment.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US CPI (YoY) | 12/03/2025 | 22 | 45.45% | 0.94% |
The US CPI figure came in lower than expected at 0.2% versus the forecasted 0.3%, initially driving a strong rally in the US Dollar before momentum faded throughout the session. This volatility led to a high number of trade triggers, with GBPJPY and Oil standing out as our most notable wins. The remaining trades resulted in a mix of small gains and losses.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US Interest Rate Decision | 19/03/2025 | 13 | 38.46% | 2.37% |
The US interest rate decision remained unchanged, as expected. However, the press conference following the announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar, which extended into the next day before recovering. Our trade of the month in GBPNZD was the primary beneficiary of this volatility, helping to offset mixed returns elsewhere. Despite a relatively low win rate, we successfully secured positive returns on the day.
Trade of the Month
Our team of expert analysts conducts daily evaluations of the market to identify top-tier trading opportunities. Each analyst brings a unique viewpoint, leveraging their vast experience to produce accurate market predictions. In March, our trade of the month centered on GBPNZD. By identifying an ongoing uptrend in the charts, our analyst recognized the potential for a significant upward shift, offering a chance to leverage the technical outlook. Predicting a slight pullback to set an entry point with an advantageous risk-to-reward ratio, they employed traditional technical analysis to pinpoint precise entry and exit points. This strategic method underscores our team's capability to anticipate strong market movements that can lead to substantial gains when successful.
Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind GBPNZD.
GBPNZD reached our planned entry point at 21:45 (UK) as prices declined following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference. We encountered a minor drawdown of 19.5 pips. The price swiftly rose from a low of 2.2310, hitting our initial target of 2.2550 within 12 hours. It continued to climb after reaching the first target, achieving our second target of 2.2580 about an hour later. At the time of publishing this blog, the price remains elevated, marking its highest level since 2015.
Published: 15:00 UK (19th March 2025)
Triggered at: 21:45 UK (19th March 2025)
Exit at: 10:08 UK (20th March 2025)
Duration: 12 Hours and 23 minutes
Outcome: 4R
March 2025 was a challenging month for global markets, with heightened geopolitical tensions and the introduction of tariffs by President Trump fuelling volatility across asset classes. Equities suffered significant declines, particularly the Nasdaq, which saw its worst quarter since 2022, while commodities like gold surged on safe-haven demand. Our trading strategies faced headwinds, with a -7.53% return reflecting the broader market uncertainty. However, FX Crosses emerged as the strongest-performing asset class, while Indices struggled the most. Despite the difficult conditions, key macroeconomic events provided opportunities, with our GBPNZD trade of the month demonstrating the value of disciplined risk management. As we move into Q2, traders must remain agile in navigating evolving market risks and capitalising on strategic opportunities.
Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.