In this blog post, we will delve into the trading signals generated by Acuity Trading in the month of June 2024. June 2024 was marked by significant volatility across all financial markets, driven by economic data, central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory developments. The interplay between inflation concerns and interest rate expectations was a central theme, influencing currencies, stock indices, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Asset Class Summary
Forex
The US Dollar's depreciation was a significant event in the forex market in June. Weak economic indicators and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates put downward pressure on the currency. This scenario benefitted other major currencies, creating opportunities for currency traders but also reflecting broader economic uncertainties.
Indices
The S&P 500 continued its strong performance, achieving seven new closing highs and rising by 3.47% for the month. Year-to-date, the index showed a return of 14.48%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a modest increase of 1.12%, closing at 39,118.86. In Europe, the FTSE 100 remained stagnant ahead of the UK general election on July 4th, with potential for renewed interest post-election. Meanwhile, the CAC40 struggled due to political instability and the rise of far-right movements. Overall, the European economic landscape is marked by uncertainty as the UK election and political challenges in France unfold.
Cryptocurrencies
Major cryptocurrencies continue to see significant outflows due to various concerns, including the upcoming Presidential Election and the low likelihood of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF by the predicted launch date.
June was an unprofitable month for our trade ideas with 306 trades triggering and a win rate of 46.08%. This led to a negative return of 7.27% for the month, with a maximum drawdown of 23.09%*. This was our first negative month since November 2023.
The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results.
12 month simulated performance statistics
| July 23 | August 23 | September 23 | October 23 | November 23 | December 23 | January 24 | February 24 | March 24 | April 24 | May 24 | June 24 |
| -14.77% | 4.93% | -1.20% | -2.34% | 8.51% | 14.80% | 31.41% | 38.91% | 10.19% | 14.55% | 15.87% | -7.27% |
The top performers for the month were FX Crosses, showing a rise of 5.69% with a drawdown of -7.79%. Following closely behind were FX Majors, showcasing a solid increase of 5.02% with a drawdown of -5.79%, we saw losses in all other asset classes with commodities losing 5.52%, Indices down 2.74% and Cryptocurrencies down 5.22%.
| Asset Class | Trades | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| FX Majors | 54 | 50.00% | 5.02% | -5.79% |
| FX Crosses | 79 | 48.10% | 5.69% | -7.79% |
| Commodities | 65 | 46.15% | -5.52% | -10.09% |
| Indices | 86 | 45.35% | -2.74% | -6.64% |
| Cryptocurrencies | 22 | 31.82% | -5.22% | -7.18% |
June proved challenging for commodities and cryptocurrencies. Mixed and choppy price action in both asset classes led to below average returns. The graphic below illustrates these tough conditions, underscoring the complexities faced by investors.
In June 2024, GBPAUD for the 2nd consecutive month emerged as our standout performer, driven by a mixture of long and short positions. GBPAUD traded persistently lower throughout June, creating a stable trend for our team of analysts to work with.
| Best | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| GBPAUD | 6 | 3 | 3 | 66.67% | 6.87% | -0.43% |
| EURSEK | 9 | 7 | 2 | 66.67% | 3.89% | -2.04% |
| DOW30 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 75.00% | 3.64% | -0.50% |
Our challenges in the cryptocurrency sector are evident once more in the outcomes, specifically with Litecoin and Bitcoin. The trading environment in both coins remained uncertain throughout June, lacking a definitive trend to follow.
| Worst | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| USDCHF | 7 | 5 | 2 | 28.57% | -3.03% | -3.15% |
| LITECOIN | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14.29% | -3.69% | -3.64% |
| BITCOIN | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14.29% | -2.67% | -3.61% |
The overall trend on GBPAUD throughout June continued to move lower, providing us with a stable trend to analyse. USDCHF declined initially and then completed a bottom formation. The lack of a definitive trend create choppy conditions and was difficult to get a clear picture.
Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| ECB Interest Rate Decision | 06/06/2024 | 14 | 50.00% | 2.05% |
The Interest Rate Decision was inline with market expectations. Initially there was a muted reaction from the EUR versus the US Dollar as the cut was already priced in to the market.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 07/06/2024 | 14 | 35.71% | -5.57% |
The Non Farm Payroll number came in much higher than forecast, which triggered a strong move higher in the US Dollar, which had been trending lower since the 1st May 2024. This countertrend move caught us out leading to losses on the day.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US CPI & Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision | 12/06/2024 | 24 | 50.00% |
1.43% |
The CPI data came in lower than expected, which triggered a sharp move lower in the US Dollar. Prices then reversed later in the day following the US interest rate decision and press conference. The mixed and choppy price action created difficult conditions, but we managed to generate a positive return on the day.
Every day, our team of analysts meticulously identifies the best trading setups across various markets. Each analyst employs a unique approach, leveraging their expert knowledge and experience to generate high-quality market calls. Our standout trade for June was a buy position on GBPUSD executed on the 3rd.
This trade setup aligned with the dominant trend in GBPUSD. While evaluating the day's opportunities, the analyst noticed the upcoming PMI data from the US. Anticipating a weaker-than-forecast reading, which is typically negative for the US Dollar, the analyst seized the opportunity. This strategic insight led to a highly successful trade, underscoring the importance of comprehensive market analysis and timely decision-making.
GBPUSD reached our desired entry level at 10:12 (UK), with minimal drawdown of 6 pips at 10:15 (UK). The immediate move higher from the entry level was very welcome, and the price continued on its bullish path throughout the trading session.
At 15:00 (UK), major macroeconomic data in the form of ISM Manufacturing PMI was released, coming in at 48.7, below the forecast of 49.6. This negatively impacted the US Dollar, providing a nice lift in the price of GBPUSD towards our 1.2790 target. The target was eventually reached at 16:25 (UK), at which point the trade was closed.
The price eventually topped out at 1.2817, falling short of our 2nd target at 1.2820.
Triggered at: 10:12 UK
Exit at: 16:25 UK
Duration: 4 Hours and 13 minutes
Outcome: 3R
While June posed some challenges, our trade strategies demonstrated resilience. FX Crosses and FX Majors led the way with impressive performances, underscoring the potential within the forex market. Overall, June illustrated the vibrancy and complexity of the financial markets, reinforcing the value of Acuity Trading's daily analysis in navigating and capitalizing on these dynamic conditions. With a positive outlook and strategic approach, the coming months hold promising opportunities for growth and success in various asset classes.
Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.