February was another eventful month for global markets as investors navigated shifting monetary policies, trade uncertainties, and evolving risk sentiment following Donald Trump’s inauguration. Major asset classes reacted differently to these macroeconomic developments, with currency markets experiencing divergent performance, equity indices facing renewed volatility, and commodities delivering mixed results. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies saw a sharp sell-off, driven by security concerns and regulatory pressures.
Despite these varied market conditions, our trading signals delivered an impressive 16.50% return, capitalizing on favourable price movements and high-probability trade setups. As we break down February’s key market trends, we highlight the best and worst-performing assets and provide insights into how macroeconomic shifts shaped trading outcomes. Our data-driven analysis aims to equip traders with actionable insights to navigate the months ahead.
Asset Class Summary
Forex In February 2025, the U.S. dollar exhibited mixed performance against major currencies. The DXY index experienced a modest decline of 0.4%. EUR/USD remained relatively stable, ending the month at 1.0450, unchanged from January. USD/JPY decreased slightly to 151.80 (-0.5%), while GBP/USD edged up to 1.0600 (+1.4%), as the Bank of England implemented an interest rate cut from 4.75% to 4.5% amid concerns over economic growth.
Indices Global equity markets faced challenges in February 2025. In the U.S., the S&P 500 declined by 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.5%, influenced by concerns over potential tariffs and inflationary pressures. European markets also experienced downturns; the DAX dropped 1.2%, and the FTSE 100 declined by 1.8%, reflecting investor caution amid global economic uncertainties.
Commodities Commodity markets experienced mixed results in February 2025. Brent crude oil prices declined by 2.3% to approximately $80/barrel, influenced by global demand concerns. Gold prices remained relatively stable, edging up 0.5% to $2,150/oz, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid market volatility. Industrial metals, such as copper, saw a slight increase of 0.8%, driven by supply constraints.
Cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrency markets experienced significant declines in February 2025. Bitcoin fell by 17.5% to around $84,252, marking its largest monthly loss since June 2022, influenced by increased market volatility and a substantial cyber-attack on the Bybit exchange resulting in a $1.5 billion loss. Ethereum also faced a downturn, decreasing by 15.2% amid broader market sell-offs and regulatory uncertainties.
February 2025 presented divergent market conditions, with FX Majors facing challenges due to dollar stability, while FX Crosses outperformed amid shifting risk sentiment. Our ability to adapt to these conditions was key to delivering a strong 16.50% return, maintaining positive momentum from the start of the year. Looking ahead, we remain focused on identifying opportunities across asset classes to optimize performance in evolving market conditions.
The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results.
12 month simulated performance statistics
| Mar 24 | Apr 24 | May 24 | Jun 24 | Jul 24 | Aug 24 | Sep 24 | Oct 24 | Nov 24 | Dec 24 | Jan 25 | Feb 25 |
| 5.88% | 10.92% | 15.15% | -2.77% | -7.69% | -8.92% | 20.16% | -18.47% | -15.68% | 27.29% | 12.66% | 16.50% |
FX Crosses delivered the strongest performance in February with a return of 5.29%, the highest win rate of 51.14%, and a relatively low drawdown of -4.86%. Commodities followed closely, achieving a return of 7.11% with the highest win rate of 56.45% and a moderate drawdown of -5.55%. Cryptocurrencies posted a solid return of 6.51%, with the highest win rate among all asset classes at 67.86% and the lowest drawdown of -1.09%. Indices delivered a positive return of 1.84%, with a win rate of 47.67% and a drawdown of -6.99%. FX Majors underperformed in February, delivering a negative return of -9.40%, the lowest win rate of 42.19%, and the largest drawdown of -11.53%.
| Asset Class | Trades | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| FX Majors | 64 | 42.19% | -9.40% | -11.53% |
| FX Crosses | 88 | 51.14% | 5.29% | -4.86% |
| Commodities | 62 | 56.45% | 7.11% | -5.55% |
| Indices | 86 | 47.67% | 1.84% | -6.99% |
| Cryptocurrencies | 28 | 67.86% | 6.51% | -1.09% |
The chart below illustrates the contrasting performance between the Dollar Index (Blue) and the Euro Index (Red) throughout February 2025. While the U.S. dollar remained resilient, maintaining its strength due to the Federal Reserve’s steady monetary policy stance, the Euro saw a modest appreciation. This was largely driven by higher-than-expected eurozone inflation, which fuelled speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) might delay its planned rate cuts. Inflation in the eurozone eased to 2.4% in February, slightly above the 2.3% forecast, with a monthly increase of 0.5%, the fastest pace since April 2024.
This divergence in monetary expectations influenced FX trading performance. In FX Majors, the dollar’s stability limited profit opportunities, contributing to weaker returns. However, FX Crosses benefited from a risk-on sentiment and volatility in non-major currency pairs, which created a more favourable trading environment.
Oil delivered the highest return at 4.65%, with a solid win rate of 66.67% across 9 trades, all of which were short positions, while maintaining a minimal drawdown of -1.01%.
CHINA A50 followed closely, achieving a return of 4.01% with the highest win rate of 75.00% across 8 trades, exclusively long positions, and maintaining a low drawdown of -1.01%.
LITECOIN also performed well, posting a return of 3.80% with a strong win rate of 75.00% over 8 trades, predominantly short positions (7 short vs. 1 long), with a slightly higher drawdown of -2.01%.
Overall, Oil led in terms of returns and consistency, while CHINA A50 and LITECOIN demonstrated strong performances with favourable win rates and controlled risk exposure.
| Best | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| OIL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 66.67% | 4.65% | -1.01% |
| CHINA A50 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 75.00% | 4.01% | -1.01% |
| LITECOIN | 8 | 1 | 7 | 75.00% | 3.80% | -2.01% |
GBPNZD was the weakest performer, delivering a negative return of -3.80% with a win rate of 0.00% across 6 trades (1 long vs. 5 short), indicating a complete lack of successful trades and a matching drawdown of -3.80%.
USDCAD also struggled, posting a return of -2.74% with a win rate of 30.00% over 10 trades (7 long vs. 3 short), and a slightly higher drawdown of -3.01%.
USDCHF recorded a return of -2.45%, a win rate of 37.50%, and a drawdown of -3.00% over 8 trades (3 long vs. 5 short), highlighting challenges in maintaining positive momentum.
Overall, these assets demonstrated low win rates, negative returns, and notable drawdowns, reflecting difficult market conditions and heightened risk exposure.
| Worst | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| GBPNZD | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.00% | -3.80% | -3.80% |
| USDCAD | 10 | 7 | 3 | 30.00% | -2.74% | -3.01% |
| USDCHF | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.50% | -2.45% | -3.00% |
Oil showed the strongest overall performance, with prices decreasing throughout the month, and our analyst maintained a sell position during February. In contrast, GBPNZD's performance was disappointing. The pair moved sideways in a range early in the month before breaking resistance and rising sharply. The analyst missed this movement, resulting in negative returns for February.
Major Macroeconomic Data
Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 07/02/2025 | 16 | 37.50% | -3.04% |
The February Non-Farm Payrolls report fell short of expectations, recording an actual figure of 143K compared to the forecasted 169K. This disappointing result led to a turbulent trading session for the US Dollar, with prices gradually rising towards the close. We achieved gains in our short positions within the crypto market, specifically in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, which helped mitigate some of the losses experienced in US Indices, EURCHF, and EURJPY.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US CPI (YoY) | 12/02/2025 | 24 | 58.33% | 5.46% |
The US CPI figures surpassed predictions, rising 0.2% above the anticipated levels. Initially, the US Dollar strengthened but then reversed course, declining over the following 24 hours. On that day, we executed numerous trades, securing significant profits in AUDJPY, EURUSD, NASDAQ, BITCOIN, DOW, and SILVER.
Our team of expert analysts performs daily market assessments to uncover high-quality trading opportunities. Each analyst offers a distinct perspective, utilising their extensive experience to generate precise market forecasts. In February, our trade of the month focused on AUDJPY. Observing a potential bottom formation on the charts, our analyst spotted the opportunity for a significant upward movement, providing a chance to capitalise on the technical outlook. Anticipating a minor pullback to establish an entry level with a favourable risk-to-reward ratio, they applied classical technical analysis to determine exact entry and exit points. This strategic approach highlights our team's ability to foresee strong market movements that can yield substantial rewards when successful.
Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind AUDJPY.
AUDJPY hit our intended entry point at 13:30 (UK) following the release of the US CPI data. We experienced a slight drawdown of 9.2 pips. The price quickly climbed from a low of 96.15, achieving our initial price target of 97.25 within four hours. The price then paused around this first target, with limited potential for further gains. The trade reached our first profit level at 17:15 (UK) but did not attain the second take profit level of 97.50.
Published: 06:13 UK (12th February 2025)
Triggered at: 13:30 UK (12th February 2025)
Exit at: 17:15 UK - Expiry Time (12th February 2025)
Duration: 3 Hours and 45 minutes
Outcome: 3.33R
February 2025 highlighted the dynamic nature of global markets, with shifting macroeconomic factors driving divergent asset class performance. FX Majors struggled amid dollar stability, while FX Crosses and Commodities capitalised on increased volatility and shifting risk sentiment. Cryptocurrencies faced headwinds from regulatory concerns and security breaches but still delivered positive returns for our strategies.
Despite these varying conditions, our trading signals adapted effectively, achieving a strong 16.50% return through high-probability setups and risk-adjusted strategies. Oil, CHINA A50, and Litecoin emerged as standout performers, while GBPNZD, USDCAD, and USDCHF presented challenges. Key macroeconomic events, including Non-Farm Payrolls and US CPI, influenced market sentiment, reinforcing the importance of strategic positioning.
Looking ahead, we will continue leveraging data-driven insights to identify opportunities across asset classes, ensuring adaptability in an evolving trading environment. While past performance does not guarantee future results, our structured approach remains focused on optimising returns while managing risk effectively.
Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.