All performance figures shown are simulated and do not reflect actual trading results. No real money was invested, and actual results may differ materially

November delivered another mixed month across global markets, with a range-bound dollar, uneven equity momentum, and continued volatility in commodities guiding trading conditions. FX Majors and select commodities offered the cleanest structures, while indices and cryptocurrencies faced more fragmented price action. This month’s report highlights the key drivers behind performance, standout opportunities, and how we navigated shifting macro dynamics.

Asset Class Summary

Forex
The dollar traded meaningfully softer through November, with the DXY rolling over from early-month resistance as markets priced a higher probability of another Fed cut in December. EUR/USD and GBP/USD maintained a firm upward tone, supported by falling U.S. yields and improving European data. USD/JPY stayed elevated for much of the month but reversed sharply into month-end after increasingly hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, triggering yen strength and a jump in local yields. Commodity FX — notably AUD/USD and NZD/USD — benefited from stabilising risk appetite, firmer metals, and tentative Chinese policy support, creating favourable structures for both trend-following and mean-reversion setups.

Indices
Global equities extended their broader uptrend, though performance was uneven beneath the surface. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced modestly but did not break to new record levels, with profit-taking in large-cap tech and AI names capping momentum. The Dow outperformed on more defensive sector flows. Europe’s STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 posted steady, rotational gains supported by strength in resources and financials. Volatility picked up episodically around U.S. inflation data, Fed repricing, and BoJ headlines, but overall conditions remained constructive for disciplined dip-buying and sector-rotation strategies rather than aggressive breakout chasing.

Commodities
Gold trended higher throughout November, supported by softer real yields and a weaker dollar, but did not reclaim the record highs set earlier in the autumn. Oil stabilised after prior declines, with OPEC+ signalling continued output restraint into early 2026. Industrial metals strengthened modestly: silver and platinum outperformed, while copper and aluminium benefited from improved sentiment around China’s incremental stimulus measures and growing concerns over supply tightness.

Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets experienced a significant risk-off unwind in November. Bitcoin fell more than 20% on the month — its sharpest decline of the year — as liquidity conditions tightened and ETF outflows accelerated. Ether and major altcoins underperformed further, with broad deleveraging driving deep intraday volatility and sustained downward pressure. Sentiment turned decisively bearish, and rallies were increasingly sold rather than accumulated, reflecting a clear shift in near-term market psychology.

The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. 

12 month simulated performance statistics

Asset Class Performance

For the month, performance dynamics shifted noticeably across asset classes, with Commodities and FX Majors emerging as the primary sources of strength, while Indices, Cryptocurrencies, and FX Crosses were net detractors.

FX Majors delivered a 7.16% return across 50 trades, supported by a 48.00% win rate and a relatively modest -5.55% drawdown. The combination of improving trend structure and disciplined risk management allowed this segment to contribute positively despite uneven directional follow-through.

Commodities also finished in positive territory, returning 4.59% over 55 trades. A 54.55% win rate — the highest across all asset classes — helped offset a deeper -9.73% drawdown, reflecting a month marked by selective but profitable opportunities amid elevated volatility.

Elsewhere, performance was weaker. FX Crosses recorded a -2.18% return from 94 trades, with a 43.62% win rate and a -7.09% drawdown, highlighting choppier conditions and reduced clarity in multi-currency momentum relative to prior months.
Cryptocurrencies fell -5.16% over 21 trades, with a 47.62% win rate and a -5.56% drawdown, signalling a meaningful deterioration in structure following earlier periods of stability.
The most significant drag came from Indices, which returned -7.02% across 92 trades. A 39.13% win rate and -13.25% drawdown — the largest of all segments — underscored consistently volatile, low-conviction price action and difficulty capturing sustained moves.

In summary, FX Majors and Commodities were the key positive contributors, while FX Crosses, Cryptocurrencies, and particularly Indices acted as meaningful headwinds. The month reinforced the value of diversification and maintaining discipline as performance drivers oscillated across asset classes.

The chart below highlights the DXY – the U.S. Dollar Index (black), which spent the month locked in range-bound trading with firm resistance near the 100 level. This stability in the dollar created a relatively predictable backdrop for the U.S. Majors, allowing technical structures to hold and contributing to stronger performance across these pairs. Consistent reactions around established boundaries supported clearer trade execution and reduced directional noise compared to other asset classes.

In contrast, the S&P 500 (blue) presented a much more challenging environment. Price action was choppy and inconsistent, showing a mild bearish drift that ran counter to the broader long-term uptrend. Ongoing concerns over equity valuations, lingering effects from the U.S. government shutdown, and shifting expectations around monetary policy all contributed to indecisive behaviour in the index. Although several breakdowns through key technical levels occurred during the month, most lacked meaningful follow-through, resulting in frequent reversals and unreliable trend development. This made conditions particularly difficult for index-focused strategies, as clean momentum and sustained structure remained elusive throughout November.

Best/Worst Performing Markets

For the current month, performance was led by EURAUD, which posted a 3.83% return across 7 trades, all of which were long positions. With a 71.43% win rate and a very shallow -0.84% drawdown, the pair delivered both consistent profitability and tight risk control, making it the strongest-performing instrument of the period.

Gold followed closely, generating a 3.68% return from 11 trades (7 long, 4 short). A 63.64% win rate and a contained -1.29% drawdown highlighted steady execution, allowing the strategy to capture upside opportunities despite mixed price action across precious metals.

EURUSD rounded out the top performers with a 3.34% gain across 5 trades (3 long, 2 short). A 60.00% win rate and a modest -1.01% drawdown reflected clean trend participation and disciplined management, helping extract value from a month defined by shifting dollar momentum.

For the month, the weakest performance came from FTSE, which recorded a -3.21% return across 10 trades (7 long, 3 short). Despite holding the highest win rate among the laggards at 40.00%, the segment still faced the deepest drawdown at -5.21%, underscoring unstable index conditions and difficulty maintaining momentum in either direction.

Nikkei followed, declining -3.16% over 8 trades (6 long, 2 short). A 25.00% win rate and a -3.19% drawdown reflected inconsistent follow-through and sharp intraday reversals, which made trend participation challenging throughout the period.

Silver also underperformed, returning -2.81% from 5 trades (3 long, 2 short). With a 20.00% win rate — the lowest in the group — and a -3.11% drawdown, the metal struggled amid fragmented momentum and limited breakout continuation.

The chart below highlights EURAUD (black), our top-performing instrument of the month. Price action held a steady bullish channel, providing repeated opportunities to buy dips as the trend progressed. This structure offered clean, technically aligned setups, and we executed 7 out of 7 trades on the long side, all within the channel. These orderly pullbacks and consistent rebounds were key contributors to the strong results recorded in this pair.

In contrast, FTSE (blue) experienced a far more uneven and choppy trading environment. The index began the month with early strength before breaking down from its upward channel and entering a corrective phase. However, the downside move lacked meaningful follow-through, with price quickly recovering—yet still failing to reclaim the November highs. Despite the broader trend remaining constructive and leading us to favour long positions (7 out of 10 trades), the erratic shifts in momentum and the absence of sustained directional moves made it difficult to capture the key swings. As a result, performance in FTSE ultimately lagged, reflecting the challenging and inconsistent conditions throughout the month

Major Macroeconomic Data

Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.

US Nonfarm Payrolls - 20th November 2025

With the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release delayed due to the government shutdown, markets were positioned for a heightened reaction once the data finally arrived. The print came in at +119k, materially above the 50k consensus estimate, triggering an initial move lower in the dollar index before stabilisation set in. Despite the upside surprise, the release did little to shift broader market expectations, as the prospect of an additional Federal Reserve rate cut had already been largely priced in.

Amid this macro backdrop, the strongest trading results came from NASDAQ—our clear Trade of the Month—with additional solid gains recorded in the DOW, US2000, and EURNZD, all of which benefited from clean technical structures and consistent follow-through. In contrast, FTSE, Nikkei, and Silver were the notable underperformers. FTSE declined -3.21% with a 40% win rate and a -5.21% drawdown, reflecting unstable and rotational index conditions. Nikkei fell -3.16% with a 25% win rate and a -3.19% drawdown, as sharp intraday reversals disrupted trend participation. Silver posted a -2.81% return with a 20% win rate and a -3.11% drawdown, struggling amid fragmented momentum and weak breakout continuation.

Trade of the Month - NASDAQ - 20th November 2025

The Trade of the Month was on NASDAQ, where we executed a well-timed short position by selling into strength during an especially choppy period for global indices. Although index performance was mixed throughout November and broader conditions remained challenging, this setup stood out as a high-conviction opportunity. Our analysts identified a key resistance zone that had repeatedly capped upside progress, with price displaying clear signs of exhaustion ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release.

When the data hit and volatility surged, the market reacted swiftly, validating our positioning. The trade delivered strong gains as price reversed decisively from the resistance area, demonstrating once again the value of disciplined structure recognition, precise entry selection, and the ability to act confidently when macro catalysts align with technical signals.

• Direction: Sell
• Entry Level: 25142
• Stop: 25342
• Target 1: 24450
• Target 2: 24425
• Risk/Reward: 1 : 3.46
  
  

The setup

• Continued upward momentum from 24450 resulted in the pair posting net daily gains yesterday

• An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning

• Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation

• Economic figures could adversely affect the short term technical picture

• The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs

• Preferred trade is to sell into rallies

Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind NASDAQ.

The Outcome

The trade activated precisely at our predefined entry level at 13:31, following a brief push into resistance. Price reversed sharply from the identified zone, with bearish momentum holding throughout the session. Drawdown remained limited to just 103 pips, highlighting accurate level selection and solid structural alignment. The first profit target at 24450 was achieved at 17:07 on 20 November.

Published: 07:53 UK (20th November 2025)

Triggered at: 13:31 UK (20th November 2025)

Exit at: 17:07 UK - (20th November 2025)

Duration: 3 Hours and 36 minutes

Outcome: 3.46R

In summary, November presented a diverse set of trading environments, from stable U.S. dollar ranges to erratic index behaviour and broad weakness in crypto. FX Majors and Commodities provided the strongest contributions, while FX Crosses, Indices, and Digital Assets acted as headwinds. Despite the challenges, disciplined trade selection—led by our NASDAQ short as the Trade of the Month—helped capture high-quality opportunities in a month defined by selective momentum and shifting market structure.

Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.

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