All performance figures shown are simulated and do not reflect actual trading results. No real money was invested, and actual results may differ materially
July 2025 was marked by notable shifts in global financial markets, driven by evolving U.S. economic data, volatile commodity markets, and fluctuating risk sentiment. The month saw the U.S. dollar rebound after a significant decline in June, as weaker-than-expected economic reports caught many market participants off guard. This reversal in the dollar's downtrend had a substantial impact on a variety of asset classes, especially those closely tied to the greenback. While some positions benefitted from this shift, others faced losses as the market adjusted to this unexpected change. Below, we outline the major developments and performance highlights across key asset classes, providing insights into how our strategies navigated the market dynamics during this period.
Asset Class Summary
Forex
The US dollar experienced a notable rebound in July after a significant decline in June. The DXY index had fallen nearly 9% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance in a calendar year on record. However, the dollar regained strength in July, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The EUR/USD pair, which had rallied earlier in the year, faced downward pressure, falling to around 1.16 by the end of July. The yen and Swiss franc also weakened against the dollar, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties.
Indices
Global equity markets showed mixed performance in July. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices reached new record highs, bolstered by strong earnings from technology companies and optimism about AI-driven growth. In contrast, European equities faced headwinds, with the STOXX 600 index declining by 0.75% over the month. The underperformance was attributed to concerns over trade tensions and slowing economic growth in the region.
Commodities
Oil: Oil prices experienced volatility in July. Brent crude oil prices fell to approximately $68 per barrel by the end of the month, influenced by concerns over oversupply and weakening demand. OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September added to the bearish sentiment.
Gold: Gold prices declined in July, with the spot price closing at $3,285.65 per ounce on July 31, down 1.28% for the month. The decrease was attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger US dollar.
Industrial Metals: Copper prices saw a significant drop in July, with futures trading at lower levels due to concerns over global demand and trade policy uncertainties.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency markets experienced increased volatility in July. Bitcoin's price fluctuated between $105,000 and $108,000, reflecting investor sentiment and regulatory developments. Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies followed similar trends, with institutional interest remaining strong despite market fluctuations.
The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results.
12 month simulated performance statistics
| Aug 24 | Sep 24 | Oct 24 | Nov 24 | Dec 24 | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | June 25 | July 25 |
| -8.92% | 20.16% | -18.47% | -15.68% | 27.29% | 12.66% | 16.50% | -7.53% | -19.13% | 19.22% | 34.08% | -20.56% |
For the month of June, the asset class performance varied, with FX Crosses taking the lead despite some challenges in their win rate. FX Crosses generated a modest return of 3.53% over 118 trades, accompanied by a win rate of 49.15%. However, they faced a drawdown of -10.89%, indicating that while returns were positive, the risk management could be improved.
Indices followed with a smaller decline, posting a return of -2.21% over 103 trades. The win rate for Indices was 45.63%, and they experienced a drawdown of -10.96%, showing a somewhat consistent but slightly negative performance for the month.
FX Majors posted a more significant loss, with a return of -14.10% over 79 trades. The win rate was 43.04%, and a drawdown of -19.43% highlighted a particularly tough month, reflecting the asset class's struggles in both profitability and risk control.
Commodities, despite a win rate of 46.81% over 94 trades, ended with a negative return of -7.93%. They faced a drawdown of -9.90%, indicating challenges in managing both performance and risk during the month.
Cryptocurrencies posted the smallest loss, with a return of -0.14% over 46 trades, and a win rate of 45.65%. The drawdown was -11.73%, showing that while cryptocurrencies were relatively stable, they still faced notable risks during the period.
In summary, FX Crosses led with the least negative return, while FX Majors and Cryptocurrencies posted considerable losses. Indices and Commodities showed mixed results, with both experiencing negative returns and significant drawdowns. The performance across all asset classes highlighted a month of overall volatility with varying degrees of risk management challenges.
| Asset Class | Trades | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| FX Majors | 79 | 43.04% | -14.10% | -19.43% |
| FX Crosses | 118 | 49.15% | 3.53% | -10.89% |
| Commodities | 94 | 46.81% | -7.93% | -9.90% |
| Indices | 103 | 45.63% | -2.21% | -10.96% |
| Cryptocurrencies | 46 | 45.65% | -0.14% | -11.73% |
The chart below highlights the recent performance of the U.S. Dollar, which after several months of corrective price action, now appears to have reached a turning point. The downtrend seems to have come to an end, with the chart showing signs of a bottoming formation. This shift in direction, driven by weaker-than-expected economic data, caught us and many other market participants off guard, leading to negative performance in asset classes closely tied to the U.S. Dollar. With the dollar seemingly on firmer ground, we anticipate that charting its next moves may become somewhat clearer, though, as always, there are no guarantees.
USDMXN posted a return of 5.92% over 16 trades (7 long, 9 short), with a win rate of 62.50% and a drawdown of -2.39%. This performance indicates a solid return with manageable risk.
XRP delivered a return of 4.63% across 9 trades (7 long, 7 short), achieving a win rate of 57.14% and a drawdown of -3.70%. While the win rate was decent, the drawdown shows some volatility in managing risk.
EURNZD stood out with an exceptional win rate of 87.50% from 8 trades (7 long, 1 short), generating a return of 4.39% with an almost negligible drawdown of -0.03%. This demonstrates strong profitability with minimal risk.
| Best | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| USDMXN | 16 | 7 | 9 | 62.50% | 5.92% | -2.39% |
| XRP | 9 | 7 | 7 | 57.14% | 4.63% | -3.70% |
| EURNZD | 8 | 7 | 1 | 87.50% | 4.39% | -0.03% |
NZDJPY recorded the poorest performance, posting a return of -6.80% over 8 trades (1 long, 7 short), with a very low win rate of 12.50% and a drawdown of -6.80%. This highlights poor trade execution and significant struggles with risk management.
USDJPY also underperformed, generating a return of -5.86% across 12 trades (2 long, 10 short), with a win rate of 33.33% and a drawdown of -5.89%, reflecting weak trade decisions and high risk exposure.
Silver mirrored these struggles, with a return of -2.31% over 9 trades (6 long, 3 short), achieving a win rate of 44.44% and a drawdown of -2.44%. While the drawdown was smaller, it still indicated challenges in risk control and trade selection.
| Worst | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| NZDJPY | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12.50% | -6.80% | -6.80% |
| USDJPY | 12 | 2 | 10 | 33.33% | -5.86% | -5.89% |
| SILVER | 9 | 6 | 3 | 44.44% | -2.31% | -2.44% |
USDMXN had the best technical conditions, with favourable two-way market behaviour allowing our analyst to set up trades in both directions throughout the month. This flexibility enabled us to capitalize on market fluctuations and maximize returns.
For NZDJPY, the pair trended upwards over the course of the month. However, we encountered some volatility and technical moves that did not play out as expected. Despite the overall uptrend, we found ourselves on the wrong side of the market during key periods, leading to negative performance.
Major Macroeconomic Data
Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 03/07/2025 | 23 | 60.87% | 1.94% |
The July 3rd Non-Farm Payroll report exceeded expectations, with 147k jobs added compared to the forecasted 110k. While this was seen as a positive sign for the economy, it also raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, which prompted an initial surge in U.S. Dollar strength. However, the data was later revised downward, with June's job gains slashed from 147k to just 14k, and May's revision cut to 19k. XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum and GBPUSD were the standout winners on the day.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US CPI (YoY) | 15/07/2025 | 27 | 33.33% | -2.82% |
The US CPI print matched forecasts and reflected a considerable increase from the prior month, accelerating the U.S. Dollar’s rally to its strongest level since June 23, 2025. This development indicates that the corrective phase for the greenback may have concluded, at least temporarily. Despite achieving our highest single trade gain of the month on AUDUSD, along with notable advances in US2000 and EURUSD, overall performance for the session closed at -2.82%.
Trade of the Month - AUDUSD - 15th July 2025
For the second month in a row, AUDUSD was our top trade. Our analysts checked the markets every day to spot good opportunities. In July, we focused on AUDUSD because it started to lose upward strength. Our team saw this as a signal to sell when the price went up, expecting it to fall back soon. By carefully studying price charts, we identified clear points where selling made sense. This helped us set up a trade with a strong balance of possible reward for the risk taken. This careful process highlights how we find the best trading chances and make the most of key changes in the market.
Trading has been mixed and volatile
Price action looks to be forming a top
We look for a temporary move higher
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.6570
Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind AUDUSD.
The trade was executed at our predetermined entry point early in the session, triggering at 07:35. Price action stayed constrained below the 0.6570 resistance for several hours, before a sharp decline in AUDUSD followed strong gains in the US dollar—driven by positive US inflation results, heightened trade tensions, and improved sentiment for the dollar. The drawdown was minimal, limited to just 5.8 pips from entry. Our first profit target at 0.6530 was reached at 15:04, and the second target at 0.6470 was achieved on 17 July 2025 at 07:35—delivering a remarkable 9.98R return.
Published: 06:39 UK (15th July 2025)
Triggered at: 09:06 UK (15th July 2025)
Exit at: 15:04 UK (15th July 2025)
Duration: 5 Hours and 58 minutes
Outcome: 4R
In summary, July was a month of mixed performance. While our trades in the FX Majors and commodities were affected by the unexpected strength of the U.S. Dollar, we identified opportunities in select markets such as USDMXN and XRP. As the U.S. Dollar stabilises, we anticipate clearer opportunities in the months ahead, although the dynamic nature of the markets continues to present challenges.
Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.
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