All performance figures shown are simulated and do not reflect actual trading results. No real money was invested, and actual results may differ materially

January marked a dynamic start to 2026, with markets transitioning out of year-end consolidation into a more volatile and selective trading environment. Shifting macro expectations, divergent asset-class performance, and early signs of leadership rotation created a landscape that rewarded adaptability, disciplined risk management, and a strong focus on structure. This report breaks down how key asset classes, individual markets, and macro events shaped performance over the month.

Asset Class Summary

Forex
January saw FX markets re-engage directionally after the thin liquidity and range-bound conditions of year-end. The U.S. dollar regained some footing early in the month as investors reassessed the pace and depth of Fed easing expectations, with incoming U.S. labour and inflation data proving resilient enough to temper aggressive rate-cut pricing. EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded with increased volatility, oscillating between macro-driven dollar strength and renewed confidence in European disinflation trends, resulting in more two-way price action rather than sustained trends. USD/JPY remained a focal point, with yen strength persisting amid firm Bank of Japan guidance and rising domestic yields, reinforcing the sense of a medium-term regime shift. Commodity currencies were mixed, benefiting episodically from improved risk sentiment and China-related headlines, but overall January conditions favoured tactical execution and relative-value setups over broad directional exposure.

Equity Indices
Global equity markets began the year on a more cautious footing, with volatility picking up as investors reassessed growth, earnings, and policy assumptions embedded late in 2025. U.S. indices experienced choppier conditions, as renewed strength in economic data delayed expectations of imminent Fed cuts, pressuring rate-sensitive and high-multiple sectors. Leadership broadened modestly beyond mega-cap technology, with industrials, energy, and select financials attracting incremental flows. European equities underperformed at times, weighed down by soft growth data and lingering political uncertainty, though downside was partially cushioned by stable energy prices. Overall, January price action favoured selective positioning and active risk management, as early-year reallocation flows created sharp but often short-lived moves.

Commodities

Commodities strengthened meaningfully in January, led by precious metals as gold and silver pushed to fresh record highs. The rally was underpinned by sustained central bank buying, persistent geopolitical risk premia, and growing conviction that global monetary policy is transitioning into an easing phase later in 2026. Gold benefited from strong defensive inflows and declining confidence in fiat stability, while silver outperformed on a combination of safe-haven demand and improving industrial-use expectations. Oil prices traded with a firm bias, supported by OPEC+ discipline and episodic supply-side disruptions, though gains remained sensitive to shifts in global growth sentiment. Industrial metals also advanced, buoyed by renewed optimism around Chinese stimulus and infrastructure spending, reinforcing a broadly constructive but increasingly momentum-driven commodities landscape.

Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets showed tentative signs of stabilisation in January but remained highly sensitive to broader liquidity conditions. Bitcoin attempted to build a base following late-2025 weakness, supported intermittently by dip-buying and reduced forced selling, though upside remained constrained by cautious institutional participation. Ether and higher-beta altcoins continued to lag, reflecting selective risk appetite and ongoing capital rotation within the space. While sentiment improved modestly compared with prior months, January trading conditions continued to favour range trading, volatility capture, and disciplined position sizing rather than aggressive trend deployment.

The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. 

12 month simulated performance statistics

Asset Class Performance

Performance dynamics shifted notably during the month, with Commodities and Cryptocurrencies emerging as the primary sources of positive returns, while FX Majors and FX Crosses weighed on overall performance. Indices also contributed modestly on the upside, though with elevated volatility. Dispersion across asset classes remained pronounced, reinforcing the importance of position sizing, diversification, and drawdown discipline.

Commodities delivered a 4.68% return across 59 trades, marking the strongest contribution for the month. A 47.46% win rate was sufficient to generate gains, though a -5.49% drawdown reflected periods of heightened volatility and uneven follow-through. Despite this, selective trade opportunities and improved directional structure allowed the segment to finish firmly positive.

Cryptocurrencies also performed well, returning 4.48% over 45 trades. A 51.11% win rate — the highest across all asset classes — combined with a contained -3.23% drawdown highlighted improving trade efficiency and better risk-adjusted outcomes, even as broader market conditions remained sensitive to liquidity shifts.

Indices posted a modest 1.83% gain across 78 trades. While the 43.59% win rate pointed to mixed execution, a -7.45% drawdown underscored choppy price action and frequent false starts, limiting the ability to fully capitalise on directional moves despite occasional periods of momentum.

Elsewhere, performance was weaker. FX Majors recorded a -8.49% return from 65 trades, with a low 32.31% win rate and a -9.33% drawdown reflecting difficult trading conditions, reduced trend persistence, and repeated failed breakouts.

FX Crosses also detracted, declining -3.78% over 78 trades. A 38.36% win rate and a -6.75% drawdown highlighted a choppier environment with less reliable multi-currency momentum, as relative-value themes failed to sustain consistent follow-through.

Summary

In aggregate, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies were the key drivers of positive performance, while Indices contributed modestly despite elevated volatility. FX Majors represented the largest drag on results, with FX Crosses also detracting. The month reinforced the need for adaptability as market leadership rotated, and underscored the value of maintaining diversification and strict risk controls amid uneven market structure across asset classes.

The black line represents the DXY, which began the year with bullish momentum, trading higher within a well-defined rising channel. That structure broke down abruptly around 19 January 2026, triggering a sharp sell-off and a rapid shift in dollar dynamics. The sudden reversal created a difficult trading environment for FX majors, with reduced follow-through and heightened volatility contributing to weaker performance across the complex.

In contrast, commodities continued to trend higher, as illustrated by the L&G All Commodities ETF (blue line). The index started the month on a strong footing and maintained upside momentum through much of January, offering clearer directional structure and more forgiving conditions. This persistent trend provided a more favourable backdrop for aligning with momentum and targeting continuation setups, supporting stronger outcomes within the commodities space.

Best/Worst Performing Markets

For the current month, performance was led by GBPAUD, which delivered a 7.10% return across 6 trades, all of which were short positions. An exceptional 83.00% win rate combined with a very shallow -0.35% drawdown highlighted strong trend alignment and precise execution, allowing the strategy to capitalise effectively on sustained directional movement in the cross.

Palladium followed closely as the second-best performer, posting a 6.73% return from 5 trades (4 long, 1 short). A 100.00% win rate and zero drawdown underscored near-flawless trade execution and favourable market structure, with tight risk management enabling consistent profit capture despite inherently volatile conditions.

NASDAQ rounded out the top contributors, generating a 5.68% gain over 14 trades. Positioning was balanced (8 long, 6 short), and a 50.00% win rate paired with a contained -1.15% drawdown reflected disciplined participation and effective risk control, even as broader U.S. equity markets exhibited alternating momentum regimes.

For the month, the weakest performance came from EURCHF, which recorded a -4.92% return across 8 trades, with positioning skewed toward shorts (6 shorts, 2 longs). A very low 13.00% win rate combined with a -4.93% drawdown highlighted persistently difficult conditions, as compressed volatility and abrupt mean-reversion repeatedly undermined directional setups in the pair.

DOW followed as the second-largest detractor, declining -4.04% over 6 trades. Positioning was predominantly long (5 longs, 1 short), but a 17.00% win rate and an equivalent -4.04% drawdown reflected unstable index dynamics, where intraday reversals and fading momentum limited the ability to sustain profitable exposure.

SA40 rounded out the underperformers, posting a -3.00% return across 8 trades, evenly split between long and short positions. A 25.00% win rate and a -3.00% drawdown pointed to choppy, low-liquidity conditions and inconsistent follow-through, which reduced strategy effectiveness despite balanced directional exposure.

GBPAUD (black line) was the standout performer this month, delivering an 83% win rate across 6 trades, all on the short side, and generating a 7.10R return. The pair provided clean bearish follow-through, allowing downside setups to play out consistently with minimal drawdown and strong risk-reward.

In contrast, EURCHF (blue line) was the weakest performer, posting a 13% win rate over 8 trades despite exhibiting a very similar technical structure. Both instruments began 2026 with corrective channels followed by downside breaks, yet EURCHF suffered from compressed volatility and poor continuation. The divergence reinforces a key lesson: similar charts can produce very different outcomes, with instrument-specific behaviour and follow-through ultimately driving performance.

Major Macroeconomic Data

Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.

US Nonfarm Payrolls - 9th January 2025

January’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release surprised to the downside, with a –50k print versus expectations of +60k, triggering a sharp intraday sell-off in the U.S. dollar. Despite the negative shock, downside follow-through proved limited, with price holding within the broader bullish channel that had been developing in the weeks prior. The sell-off stabilised around midday on 12 January, after which the dollar resumed its upward trajectory for roughly another week, highlighting underlying resilience despite the headline miss.

Trading activity on the day was lighter than usual, with a lower trigger rate reflecting the heightened event risk and uneven follow-through. The standout performance came from Oil, which reached its upside target and delivered a 3.04R return. Elsewhere, smaller gains were recorded across EURCHF, Copper, XRP, and Bitcoin, while modest losses were incurred in Ethereum and Litecoin. Overall, January’s NFP session reinforced the importance of patience around macro releases, as initial reactions gave way to more nuanced price behaviour across asset classes.

Trade of the Month - WTI Oil - 9th January 2026

The Trade of the Month for January was Oil, where our analyst identified a developing bottoming formation following multiple tests of a key support zone over recent weeks. Price action began to stabilise after an extended decline, with selling pressure fading and early signs of accumulation emerging, signalling that a broader reversal was likely underway.

With momentum starting to turn and structure improving, the strategy shifted to buying dips rather than fading rallies. This approach allowed the trade to align with the emerging bullish bias, positioning for higher prices as the market transitioned from basing behaviour into trend resumption. The setup underscored the value of patience and structural confirmation when trading reversals, particularly in commodities where trend shifts can be both sharp and sustained once established.

• Direction: Buy
• Entry Level: 59.28
• Stop: 57.26
• Target 1: 59.28
• Target 2: 60.00
• Risk/Reward: 1 : 3.04
  
  

The setup

• Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 9 days

• Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation

• The medium term bias remains bullish

• Bespoke support is located at 57.76

• There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited

Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind WTI Oil.

The Outcome

The trade was triggered at 09:33, with price initially dipping 9 pips below entry before quickly reversing higher. Momentum then built steadily through the session, with price rallying cleanly toward our first target at 59.28, which was reached at 14:51, locking in a 3.04R gain. The shallow drawdown highlighted precise entry placement and strong alignment with the prevailing trend.

Following the initial target hit, bullish momentum remained intact. Price continued to grind higher over the subsequent sessions, eventually reaching our second target at 60.00 in the early hours of 13 January 2026 (06:00). The trade exemplified effective trend participation, with controlled risk and sustained follow-through delivering a strong outcome.

Published: 06:23 UK (9th January 2026)

Triggered at: 09:33 UK (9th January 2026)

Exit at: 14:51 UK - (9th January 2026)

Duration: 5 Hours and 18 minutes

Outcome: 3.04R

Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.

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