All performance figures shown are simulated and do not reflect actual trading results. No real money was invested, and actual results may differ materially
August brought a varied set of conditions across global markets, with currencies, equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all showing different characteristics. Seasonal summer trading meant tighter ranges in some areas, while volatility persisted elsewhere. Despite these mixed conditions, our analysts were able to identify opportunities, with FX Crosses standing out as areas of relative strength.
Asset Class Summary
Forex
The US dollar weakened again in August, reversing its July rebound. The Dollar index fell nearly 2% over the month, extending its year-to-date decline to close to 10%, one of its worst annual performances in decades. The sell-off was driven by mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing an 86% chance of a September reduction and over 100 basis points of easing by mid-2026. Investor sentiment toward the dollar was also dented by growing political risks and concerns over the Fed’s independence. The EUR/USD pair gained ground, trading higher toward 1.18, while the yen and Swiss franc saw renewed safe-haven support amid volatility in global markets.
Indices
Equity markets delivered mixed but generally positive performance in August. In the United States, the S&P 500 rose 1.9%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Dow Jones advanced 3.2%, while small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 outperformed on optimism around Fed policy easing. However, momentum faded toward the end of the month, with AI and technology names such as Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell leading declines on concerns about slowing demand. In Europe, equities remained subdued, with the STOXX 600 broadly flat, reflecting persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty over trade. Hedge funds ended the month cautiously, reducing exposure and leverage in anticipation of September’s seasonal volatility.
Commodities
Oil prices continued to face downward pressure in August. Brent crude fell about 2.4% to settle near $66 per barrel, while WTI dropped 3.6%, as concerns over softening global demand and expectations of higher OPEC+ supply weighed on sentiment. Gold prices strengthened, rising to multi-month highs as investors sought safe-haven assets amid Fed policy uncertainty and a weakening dollar. Silver and platinum also outperformed, while industrial metals such as copper stabilised after July’s sharp losses, supported by gains in iron ore and coal.
Cryptocurrencies
Digital asset markets experienced volatility in August, mirroring broader risk sentiment. Bitcoin briefly climbed above $123,000 before retracing gains, while Ethereum and other major tokens followed similar trading patterns. Institutional demand remained evident, but regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic crosscurrents limited sustained upside momentum.
The simulated performance statistics provided are based on the assumption of risking 1% of trading capital per trade. It is crucial to understand that past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results.
12 month simulated performance statistics
| Sep 24 | Oct 24 | Nov 24 | Dec 24 | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | June 25 | July 25 | August 25 |
| 20.16% | -18.47% | -15.68% | 27.29% | 12.66% | 16.50% | -7.53% | -19.13% | 19.22% | 34.08% | -20.56% | -8.70% |
For the month of August, asset class performance was led by FX Crosses, which delivered a strong return of 13.28% over 71 trades. With a win rate of 53.52% and a relatively shallow drawdown of -1.86%, this segment demonstrated both profitability and effective risk control, standing out as the best performer of the month.
Indices followed with a modest gain, posting a return of 0.27% across 79 trades. The win rate was 49.37%, and the drawdown of -2.41% suggested stable performance with limited downside, offering a contrast to the more volatile results seen in other asset classes.
FX Majors experienced a negative month, recording a return of -5.32% over 66 trades. The win rate came in at 43.94%, and the drawdown of -10.67% pointed to challenges in managing both risk and profitability.
Commodities underperformed with a return of -7.99% across 51 trades. Despite a win rate of 43.14%, they faced the steepest drawdown at -12.70%, reflecting persistent headwinds and significant risk pressures.
Cryptocurrencies recorded the weakest performance, posting a return of -8.94% over 29 trades. With a win rate of just 27.59% and a drawdown of -9.26%, this segment highlighted ongoing difficulties and heightened volatility in digital assets.
In summary, August was defined by the strong outperformance of FX Crosses and the steady resilience of Indices, while FX Majors, Commodities, and Cryptocurrencies all struggled with negative returns and notable drawdowns. The month underscored a continued divergence in performance across asset classes, with risk management outcomes playing a decisive role.
| Asset Class | Trades | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| FX Majors | 66 | 43.94% | -5.32% | -10.67% |
| FX Crosses | 71 | 53.52% | 13.28% | -1.86% |
| Commodities | 51 | 43.14% | -7.99% | -12.70% |
| Indices | 79 | 49.37% | 0.27% | -2.41% |
| Cryptocurrencies | 29 | 27.59% | -8.94% | -9.26% |
The chart below shows the Dollar Index (black), which appeared to break its downtrend and complete a small bottom formation at the start of August. However, the initial optimism quickly faded, with the Dollar retreating over the month and settling back into its broader downtrend. August can often be a challenging month for financial assets due to the holiday season, and this was evident in the price action. We observed narrower ranges across several currencies, which created favourable conditions for our analysts covering FX Crosses, as they were able to capitalise on range-bound trading.
In Equities, the S&P 500 (blue) continued to trend higher with limited deviation or volatility, leading to modest but steady returns. By contrast, volatility was more pronounced in Commodities and Cryptocurrencies, diverging from the relatively stable conditions in FX and Indices. This presented challenges for our analysts, but also valuable insights into shifting market dynamics.
Overall, August highlighted the importance of adaptability across asset classes. While some markets offered limited opportunities, others presented volatility-driven setups. By maintaining a disciplined and flexible approach, we are well-positioned to continue identifying and capturing opportunities as market conditions evolve into the coming months.
GBPJPY delivered the strongest performance in August, posting a return of 5.92% over 4 trades, all of which were long positions. With a win rate of 75.00% and a minimal drawdown of -0.07%, the pair showed strong profitability with very limited downside risk.
GBPAUD also performed well, achieving a return of 5.02% across 6 trades (4 long, 2 short). The win rate of 83.33% highlighted consistent trade execution, while the drawdown of -0.98% reflected effective risk control.
The DAX index posted a return of 4.86% over 9 trades (6 long, 3 short). With a win rate of 77.78% and a drawdown of -1.44%, the results indicated steady profitability combined with manageable risk exposure.
| Best | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| GBPJPY | 4 | 4 | 0 | 75.00% | 5.92% | -0.07% |
| GBPAUD | 6 | 4 | 2 | 83.33% | 5.02% | -0.98% |
| DAX | 9 | 6 | 3 | 77.78% | 4.86% | -1.44% |
Bitcoin recorded the poorest performance in August, posting a return of -4.89% over 8 trades (6 long, 2 short). With a win rate of 25.00% and a drawdown of -4.89%, results highlighted persistent volatility and weak trade execution in digital assets.
The Nasdaq also struggled, generating a return of -4.68% across 9 trades (7 long, 2 short). The very low win rate of 22.22% and a drawdown of -4.88% underscored difficulties in maintaining profitable equity positions.
NZDUSD underperformed as well, posting a return of -3.77% from 8 trades (4 long, 4 short). With a win rate of 25.00% and a drawdown of -4.17%, this highlighted poor trade consistency and elevated risk exposure.
| Worst | Trades | Long | Short | Win Rate | Returns | Drawdown |
| BITCOIN | 8 | 6 | 2 | 25.00% | -4.89% | -4.89% |
| NASDAQ | 9 | 7 | 2 | 22.22% | -4.68% | -4.88% |
| NZDUSD | 8 | 4 | 4 | 25.00% | -3.77% | -4.17% |
The chart below shows GBPJPY, which was our best-performing market in August. After an initial move higher early in the month, in line with the longer-term trend, participation quickly tapered off, likely reflecting reduced activity during the summer period. The pair then spent much of the month trading within a range, showing a slight bearish bias but holding above key support levels.
Bitcoin, by contrast, also pushed higher at the beginning of the month but experienced a sharp reversal around 14th August, retreating from fresh all-time highs. The corrective move lower has since extended, and while we maintained a position in line with the broader bullish trend, buyers have yet to reassert themselves.
Major Macroeconomic Data
Here is a snapshot of how our trade ideas performed on the day of key macroeconomic data.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 01/08/2025 | 15 | 33.33% | -0.28% |
The August 1st Non-Farm Payroll report fell well short of expectations, with only 73k jobs added compared to the forecast of 100k. This disappointing release was likely the catalyst behind the Dollar’s sharp retreat, coming just as technical signals had suggested that a move higher was imminent. Following the data, the Dollar dropped abruptly.
Despite being caught off guard by the reversal, our overall performance remained resilient. Losses on the day were contained to -0.28%, with a win rate of 33.33%. Strong gains in GBPUSD, USDMXN, Platinum, and the Dow helped offset the broader weakness, ensuring the day closed with a respectable outcome. This highlights the value of diversification and disciplined trade selection, even in the face of unexpected market shocks.
| Event | Date | Trades Triggered | Win Rate | Return |
| US CPI (MoM) | 12/08/2025 | 13 | 61.54% | 3.64% |
The US CPI release came in broadly in line with expectations, allowing our analysts to position effectively ahead of the data. With greater clarity on the likely direction of the US Dollar, we were able to capitalise on subsequent weakness, generating a 3.64% gain on the day with a solid win rate of 61.54%. Notable winners included GBPAUD, the DAX, Platinum, and Gold, all of which contributed meaningfully to performance. This outcome reinforced the value of preparation and data-driven positioning, showcasing our ability to translate macroeconomic clarity into profitable trading opportunities.
Trade of the Month - GBPJPY - 7th August 2025
GBPJPY was the clear standout in August, delivering the strongest trade outcome of the month. Our research team carried out systematic daily market reviews to identify high-probability opportunities aligned with prevailing trends. In August, analytical focus centred on GBPJPY, reflecting the pair’s sustained strength across higher timeframes and the emergence of a distinct bottoming pattern on shorter-term charts. This technical setup presented an attractive opportunity to enter on a corrective pullback, positioning for further upside. Through precise chart analysis, we defined clear entry levels that offered an optimal risk–reward profile. This disciplined, data-driven approach exemplifies our methodology in isolating high-quality trading opportunities and capitalising on key market inflection points.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Bespoke support is located at 196.25.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Here's a graphical depiction illustrating the trade setup and the analytical process behind GBPJPY.
The trade was executed at our predetermined entry point early in the session, triggering at 08:22 after prices dipped. Price immediately reversed from the support level and continued to move higher throughout the session. The drawdown was minimal, limited to just 1 pip from entry. The trade was closed out at 21:00, in line with the predetermined expiry time. The first profit target at 198.25 was reached at 09:54 on 8th August, and the second target at 198.70 was achieved later the same day at 12:09.
Published: 06:48 UK (7th August 2025)
Triggered at: 08:22 UK (7th August 2025)
Exit at: 21:00 UK - Expiry Time (7th August 2025)
Duration: 12 Hours and 38 minutes
Outcome: 3.13R
In summary, August underlined the importance of flexibility and discipline in trading. FX Crosses produced the best results of the month, while indices offered modest gains. Commodities and cryptocurrencies were more challenging, though selective opportunities still emerged. Our trade of the month on GBPJPY highlighted how systematic preparation and well-defined setups can deliver positive outcomes, even in a mixed market environment.
Thank you for your continued trust in Acuity Trading. Stay tuned for more updates and insights in the coming months.
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