News Sentiment on French Elections, GBPUSD and Gold :: 20 March 2017

March 20, 2017

If you’ve been following our Market Commentaries over the last few weeks, you’ll know that we have been watching the Major Stock Indices.

Today we have a very Bearish outlook on the indices, regarding News Sentiment, except for the NASDAQ and the CAC40.  The French stock index can be forgiven recently, as it is being influenced by local elections.

Speaking of which, Acuity Trading also looks at News Sentiment for special events.  News Sentiment is quite tight amongst the candidates with Benoit Hamon slightly ahead today.

If you are into technical analysis, all the indices, except for the Nikkei, are showing a double top and many are at a key level of support and  past resistance.

We are always interested in the price of copper and News Sentiment is showing quite Bearish right now.

We had a huge jump in copper a few months ago which preceded a jump in the equities by about a week or more and 2 days ahead of a jump in the Aussie.

The was especially strong along with the Australian and Japanese indices.  Copper has been on a downtrend for the last 3 weeks and today, has bounced off the upper trend line with the Nikkei, AUS200 and Aussie Dollar poking at resistance.

Looking at the US Dollar, last week’s Interest rate hike was priced in and the FOMC really couldn’t offer much more in terms of fiscal stimulus so the dollar is currently showing weakness against everything except the Loonie which is struggling due to the decreasing price of oil.

Oil, by the way, is looking bearish regarding news sentiment and we are back to $48 per barrel.

We have Wednesday’s Crude Oil Inventories affecting the price of Oil and the Canadian Dollar, along with tomorrow’s Canadian Retail sales and Friday’s Monthly Consumer Price Index.

Affecting the US Dollar we have Thursday’s Unemployment Claims and a Janet Yellen speech followed Friday by US monthly Durable Goods Orders.

From New Zealand we have tomorrow’s Dairy Production Price Index and an Interest rate decision Wednesday, where we expect no change from 1.75%

We’ve noticed a big discrepancy between the Aussie and Kiwi dollars in the form of a bull run with Australian Dollar strength and Daily Market Alerts picked up 2 big moves over the last month.

Out of Australia this week we have tonight’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes .

From London this week we can look forward to tomorrow’s Yearly CPI figures and Thursday’s Retail Sales figures.  The Pound is looking a bit stronger over last week especially against the US Dollar but ranging against the Yen.

Brexit seems to be working it’s way through the UK Parliament so, good or bad, the markets see this as the opposite of uncertainty and Cable is showing fully Bullish on News sentiment.

Let’s finish with Gold as last week’s FOMC statement certainly put a stop to the bear run that started at the beginning of the month and it seems that our Daily Market Alerts picked the last 3 big moves.

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